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The global economy is facing a ' triple crunch.'
It is a combination of a credit-fuelled financial crisis, accelerating
climate
change and soaring energy prices underpinned by an encroaching
peak
in oil production. These three
overlapping events threaten to develop into a perfect storm, the
like of which has not been seen since the Great Depression. To help
prevent this from happening we are proposing a Green New Deal.
This entails re-regulating finance and taxation plus a huge transformational
programme aimed at substantially reducing the use of fossil fuels
and in the process tackling the unemployment and decline in demand
caused by the credit crunch. It involves policies and novel funding
mechanisms that will reduce emissions contributing to climate change
and allow us to cope better with the coming energy shortages caused
by peak oil.
The triple crunch of financial meltdown, climate change and 'peak
oil' has its origins firmly rooted in the current model of globalisation.
Financial deregulation has facilitated the creation of almost limitless
credit. With this credit boom have come irresponsible and often
fraudulent patterns of lending, creating inflated bubbles in assets
such as property, and powering environmentally unsustainable consumption.
This approach hit the buffers of insolvency and unrepayable debts
on what we think of as 'debtonation day', 9 August 2007, when the
banks suddenly fully understood the scale of debts on the balance
sheets of other banks, and stopped lending to each other.
In the same year, natural disasters struck body blows to entire
national economies, and rising prices began to alert the world to
the potential scarcity of oil. At both ends of the climatic spectrum,
Australia saw a prolonged drought decimate its domestic grain production,
and Mexico saw floods wipe out the agricultural production of an
entire large state. In the oil markets, growing numbers of whistleblowers
pointed to the probability of an early peak in production, and a
possible subsequent collapse of production. The International Energy
Agency (IEA) said an oil crunch is likely in 2012.
Drawing our inspiration from Franklin D. Roosevelt's courageous
programme launched in the wake of the Great Crash of 1929, we believe
that a positive course of action can pull the world back from economic
and environmental meltdown. The Green New Deal that we are proposing
consists of two main strands. First, it outlines a structural transformation
of the regulation of national and international financial systems,
and major changes to taxation systems. And, second, it calls for
a sustained programme to invest in and deploy
energy conservation and renewable energies, coupled with effective
demand management. In this way we believe we can begin to stabilise
the current triple-crunch crisis.
We can also lay the foundations for the emergence of a set of resilient
low carbon economies, rich in jobs and based on independent sources
of energy supply. This will create a more stable economic environment
in which there is a lot more local production and distribution,
and enhanced national security. In the first half of this report
we examine the financial, economic and environmental landscapes
that are the backdrop to this triple crisis. In the second half,
we propose a series of policies that can be used to tackle the problems
we have identified.
The Green New Deal
We call our programme a Green New Deal - one that combines stabilisation
in the short term with longer-term restructuring of the financial,
taxation and energy systems. The Green New Deal is international
in outlook, but requires action at local, national, regional and
global levels. Focusing first on the specific needs of the UK, an
interlocking programme of action needs to involve:
o Executing a bold new vision for a low-carbon energy system that
will include making 'every building a power station'. Involving
tens of millions of properties, their energy efficiency will be
maximised, as will
the use of renewables to generate electricity. This will require
a £50 billion-plus per year crash programme to be implemented
as widely and rapidly as possible. We are calling for a programme
of investment and a
call to action as urgent and far-reaching as the US New Deal in
the 1930s and the mobilisation for war in 1939.
o Creating and training a 'carbon army' of workers to provide the
human resources for a vast environmental reconstruction programme.
We want to see hundreds of thousands of these new high- and lower-skilled
jobs created in the UK. It will be part of a wider shift from an
economy narrowly focused on financial services and shopping to one
that is an engine of environmental transformation. The UK has so
far largely missed out on the boom in 'green collar' jobs, with
Germany already employing 250,000 in renewable energy alone.
o Ensuring more realistic fossil fuel prices that include the cost
to the environment, and are high enough to tackle climate change
effectively by creating the economic incentive to drive efficiency
and bring alternative
fuels to market. This will provide funding for the Green New Deal
and safety nets to those vulnerable to higher prices via rapidly
rising carbon taxes and revenue from carbon trading. We advocate
establishing an
Oil Legacy Fund, paid for by a windfall tax on the profits of oil
and gas companies. The monies raised would help deal with the effects
of climate change and smooth the transition to a low-carbon economy.
o Developing a wide-ranging package of other financial innovations
and incentives to assemble the tens of billions of pounds that need
to be spent. The focus should be on smart investments that not only
finance
the development of new, efficient energy infrastructure but also
help reduce demand for energy, particularly among low-income groups,for
example by improving home insulation. The science and technology
needed to power an energy-and-transport revolution are already in
place. But at present the funds to propel the latest advances into
full-scale development are not.
Re-regulating the domestic financial system to
ensure that the creation of money at low rates of interest is consistent
with democratic aims, financial stability, social justice and environmental
sustainability. Our
initial proposals for financial renewal are inspired by those implemented
in the 1930s. They involve the reduction of the Bank of England's
interest rate to help those borrowing to build a new energy and
transport infrastructure, with changes in debt-management policy
to enable reductions in interest rates across all government borrowing
instruments. In parallel, to prevent inflation, we want to see much
tighter controls on lending and on the generation of credit.
o Breaking up the discredited financial institutions that have needed
so much public money to prop them up in the latest credit crunch.
We are calling for the forced demerger of large banking and finance
groups. Retail
banking should be split from both corporate finance (merchant banking)
and from securities dealing. The demerged units should then be split
into smaller banks. Mega banks make mega mistakes that affect us
all. Instead of institutions that are 'too big to fail', we need
institutions that are small enough to fail without creating problems
for depositors and the wider public.
o Re-regulating and restricting the international finance sector
to transform national economies and the global economy. Finance
will have to be returned to its role as servant, not master, of
the global economy, to dealing prudently with people's savings and
providing regular capital for productive and sustainable investment.
Regulation of finance, and the restoration of policy autonomy to
democratic government, implies the re-introduction of capital controls.
These are vital if central banks and governments are to fix and
determine one of the most important levers of the economy - interest
rates
o Subjecting all derivative products and other exotic instruments
to official inspection. Only those approved should be permitted
to be traded. Anyone trying to circumvent the rules by going offshore
or on to the internet
should face the simple and effective sanction of 'negative enforcement'
- their contracts would be made unenforceable in law. Ultimately
our aim is an orderly downsizing of the financial sector in relation
to the rest of the economy.
o Minimising corporate tax evasion by clamping down on tax havens
and corporate financial reporting. Tax should be deducted at source
(i.e. from the country from which payment is made) for all income
paid to financial institutions in tax havens. International accounting
rules should be changed to eliminate transfer mispricing by requiring
corporations to report on a country-by-country basis. These measures
will provide much-needed sources of public finance at a time when
economic contraction is reducing conventional tax receipts.
We also urge the UK to take action at the international level to
help build the orderly, well-regulated and supportive policy and
financial environment that is required to restore economic stability
and nurture environmental sustainability.
Our Government's objectives should include:
o Allowing all nations far greater autonomy over domestic monetary
policy (interest rates and money supply) and fiscal policy (government
spending and taxation).
o Setting a formal international target for atmospheric greenhouse
gas concentrations that keeps future temperature rises as far below
2°C as possible.
o Delivering a fair and equitable international climate agreement
to succeed the Kyoto Protocol in 2012.
o Giving poorer countries the opportunity to escape poverty without
fuelling global warming by helping to finance massive investment
in climate-change adaptation and renewable energy.
Supporting the free and unconstrained transfer of new energy technologies
to developing countries.
In the words of France's President Sarkozy, 'we have to put a stop
to this financial system which is out of its mind and which has
lost sight of its purpose.'
The Green New Deal will rekindle this vital sense of purpose, restoring
public trust and refocusing the use of capital on public priorities
and sustainability. In this way it can also help deliver a wide
range of social benefits that can greatly improve quality of life
in the future.
There is also an immediate imperative to restore some faith that
society can survive the dreadful threats it now faces as a result
of the triple crunch. Beyond that, we believe the Green New Deal
can deliver a crucial national plan for a low-energy future and
its provision on the ground. The absence of any such plan at present
leaves the country very vulnerable. There is no risk analysis of
the peak-oil threat, and there is no contingency plan for what would
happen if oil and/or gas supplies collapsed rapidly. Our plan would
include oversight and coordination for generating the funding from
government, the energy industry and a range of private savings vehicles
for investment in a vital multi-decade
programme for the transition to a low-energy future. In short, it
is a route map for the journey from energy and economic insecurity
to one of energy and environmental security.
This report is a call to wake up to the scale of the menace posed
to the natural world, the global economy and all our livelihoods
by a triple crunch: the present global financial crisis, climate
change and the rapid depletion of oil.
To develop innovative, sound solutions that will deal with the gravity
of this triple crunch we have convened a group of 'new economists'
whose backgrounds range from the City, to the oil industry and the
labour and environmental movements. We set out to envision a different
future, and propose policies for renewal. This report is the result.
It is a call for a radical transformation in the financial and economic
model that has fuelled these crises. In it we propose a Green New
Deal.
As our executive summary suggests, the Green New Deal is designed
to address these great threats confronting society and restore stability
to our financial, political and ecosystems. In doing so, we hope
to correct a number of critical oversights. These include the ways
in which environmentalists have tended to neglect the role of the
finance
sector and economic policy; how those involved in industry, broadly
defined, have failed to grasp the malign effects of the finance
sector on the overall economy; and how trade unionists have for
too long ignored financial and environmental concerns.
We hope that the publication of this report will help bring these
diverse social and industrial forces together, leading to a new
progressive movement. We believe that our joint signatories point
to an exciting possibility of a new political alliance:
an alliance between the labour movement and the green movement,
between those engaged in manufacturing and the public sector, between
civil society and academia, industry, agriculture and those working
productively in the service industries.
Such a political alliance is vital if we are to challenge the dominance
of the finance sector in the economy, its threat to the productive
sectors of the economy, its corruption of the political system,
and its corrosion of social and environmental values.
By proposing a Green New Deal, this report acknowledges the limits
to our ecosystem; that 'the biosphere that supports us is finite,
non-growing, closed and constrained by the laws of thermodynamics',
as the environmental economist Herman Daly put it.
The Green New Deal promotes 'joined-up thinking' about the four
systems that dominate our world: the market, the state, civil society
and the ecosystem. We hope that it will lay the basis for a radical
transformation and renewal of our financial, political and ecosystems.
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